The Affordable Care Act’s insurance marketplaces are being destroyed in a Republican health-law bill that could leave millions of Americans without insurance coverage or have them pay more out-of-pocket expenses, according to a study by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office.
The CBO analysis, released Thursday, found that 22 million people would lose their coverage or pay more than $2,500 more in out- of-pocket costs under the House Republican proposal.
That would be a major hit for millions of middle-class Americans, the CBO found, with the median income of a family of four in the bottom fifth of the income distribution.
The bill would also cut taxes for most Americans.
“The Republican bill would eliminate coverage for more than 22 million Americans and reduce their incomes by nearly $2.5 trillion over a decade, according the CBO analysis,” according to the report.
The report was based on CBO’s baseline assumptions that the bill would reduce the deficit by $110 billion over 10 years, which would leave Republicans on the hook for $1.1 trillion in new deficits over the next decade.
The bill, however, is expected to face a lot of pressure from conservatives to lower the budget deficits.
House Republicans have said that the cost savings from the bill could offset the $2 trillion in tax increases that would go into effect as of 2025.
But a new analysis from the left-leaning Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, a progressive think tank, said that under the bill, the deficit would rise by $1 trillion over the coming decade, meaning the CBO would find that the plan would be less than revenue neutral.
“House Republicans have long claimed that the CBO is a liberal think tank,” said Adam Green, co-director of the center.
“But the CBO has long shown itself to be more than liberal.
It has a track record of supporting their radical ideology, and it has repeatedly ignored the budget impacts of their proposals.”
The CBO’s analysis was based entirely on a two-year CBO baseline for the bill.
In the next two years, it said, premiums would rise and the tax credits would drop, resulting in a tax bill that would increase taxes and increase spending.
Under the current law, people who purchase coverage on the individual market or through Medicaid would be taxed on the amount of money they pay.
The CBO assumed that premiums would not increase for those making less than $75,000 a year.
The cost-sharing reduction subsidies would also disappear, meaning that many people who do not qualify for subsidies would pay less out of pocket.
The analysis also found that the legislation would reduce federal support for the Children’s Health Insurance Program, which pays for the majority of preventive care in the program.
It would also lower Medicaid payments for states that do not expand Medicaid.
While the CBO said that there were no significant cost-saving measures in the bill’s proposed cuts to Medicaid, it also said that it would not be enough to offset the tax increases.
The nonpartisan Tax Policy Center said that in 2019 alone, the GOP bill would increase federal revenue by $9.2 trillion.
The GOP bill includes a provision that would allow states to opt out of Medicaid expansion if they choose not to do so, though that option has yet to be enacted.
In the report, CBO noted that the Senate bill includes an alternative provision to phase out the Medicaid expansion over 10 to 20 years.
The provision would have phased out Medicaid expansion under the current Medicaid law if states did not expand by 2020, and states could choose to extend the Medicaid expansions through 2025 if the Senate and House bills passed.
The Senate bill also included a repeal of the employer mandate, a requirement that employers provide health insurance to their workers, for which the CBO estimated that it could result in $6 billion in savings in 2020.
But the GOP’s bill would have to be approved by the Senate to pass in the Senate, and the House bill has to be passed by the House to become law.