Analysis: We’ve had scenarios from two teams of professional economic modellers and two different pictures. The question of which one is more accurate matters enormously, says Ben Chu
Just how much economic damage will this end up doing? It would probably seem utterly bizarre to put the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) in the optimistic camp when it comes to that question.
The Treasury’s official forecaster has released an “illustrative scenario” that has GDP falling by 35 per cent in the second quarter of 2020.
That would essentially be the largest quarterly drop in modern history for the UK economy.
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